MarginLab Codex tracker shows GPT-6 Sol pass rates falling while its baseline is still being collected

MarginLab's Codex tracker (GPT-6 Sol at high effort, from September 24, 2026) showed 54% on the latest day (50 tasks), 59% over 7 days (350 tasks) and 79% over 30 days (1,450 tasks). The page marks 1-day (-29.4%) and 7-day (-24.9%) changes as statistically significant but says degradation detection is paused while the new baseline is built.

Who is affected:

Codex CLI users on GPT-6 Sol at high effort.

What to do:

Treat the drop as provisional and compare GPT-6.1 Sol on your own tasks.